CEE region

The Erste Group analysts also see the development of growth in Central and Eastern Europe as significantly affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Whereas political uncertainties and the tendency towards weaker export markets and domestic demand had previously led to an expected slowdown, this slowdown has only been compounded by the coronavirus pandemic. At an expected unemployment rate of 4.9% in 2020 (2019: 4.6%, 2018 still 5.2%), real GDP growth should then average only 0.8% for the region. Hungary and Poland should continue to show relatively good growth by regional standards, surpassed only by Romania and Serbia with real GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.5% respectively in 2020.

A key factor for economic development, under the current influence of the virus and beyond, should be government support measures. EU funding in upcoming budget periods should also contribute to the growth of the region.